Indian elections are synonymous with Indian weather. Unlike the proverbial English weather, our climatic conditions are more predictable, though not necessarily by the meteorological department.
Indian seasons follow the set pattern and sequence. Similarly the election season is well predicted by the election weathermen – The day of the Psephologist is here to stay.
So, the winter of congress rule and the advent of the summer of BPJs rise, leading up to the 2014 elections was just another year in politics. The government has weathered the storms of demonetization and floods of GST to the simmering heat of economic decline over the years of directed rightwing policies.
The Bihar elections, is a clear sign of the season setting in the northern hemisphere. The NCP, Shiva sena combination with congress did show us the possibilities that Indian politics is capable of. So Chirag Paswan of LJP, setting up camp outside the NDA campus was not truly surprising, even as it widened BPJ consolidation options. The outcome of the Bihar elections is sealed within the minds of the electorate already. The campaigns by leaders will only form media content. The voter today cannot be swayed by the swagger of last minute rallies, even if it is by the top gun.It has been seen over and over that Even Modi does not add more than a few percentage points, 3 to 4% in the assembly election. Hence it could make a difference only in a tight closely fought election, where a mere 2 to 4 percentage vote change can make the difference in winning a seat.
TAMIL NADU ELECTIONS
The MP Bypoll will be conducted for the 28 seats of the Madhya Pradesh legislative assembly. is 3 November 2020. The results of the MP Bypoll will be announced on 10 November 2020.24 had fallen vacant after the 2020 Madhya Pradesh political crisis. The other two important states going to the assembly polls are West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. All these elections will determine the pattern of change in the Indian political scene.
Tamilnadu was one of the earlier state to slip out of the congress fold over sixty years ago. The founding Dravidian movements emphasis on = Onre Kulam Oruvanae Devan which means “Only one race, Only one God”, defined a powerful aspiration sentiment for its time. The essence of this message defined success in Tamil nadu politics for over the past six decades.
The Dravidian movement was built on mesmerising power of delivery by the great orators, which gave them instant connect to the public imagination. It was sustained by the two generational leadership phases of this movement. The election of 2021 will be the first without the charisma of strong Tamilian leaders.
BJPs RSS managed poll strategy was a success for two fertile ground conditions, The Ram Janmabhoomi movement and the existence of a strong RRS cadre, available for ground execution and booth management. Also it was pitted against a highly fragmented opposition, which predetermined the need for a strong political outfit that the masses were looking out for. This role of BJP as a centralized party with good leadership and a nationalistic philosophy was conveyed effectively through a largely managed national media. The independent media did not have a counter narrative to build on.
The explanation for a very difficult, late and sinister politically manipulative entry into south India is largely explained by The BJP being mentally a northern Indian party without an in-depth understanding of the southern ethos.
The Tactical maneuvers to build the party presence in Tamil Nadu.
BJP lacks orators of the kind Tamil nadu is used to, who can inspire and put across change narratives convincingly. Tamil nadu new generation is in the cusp of a calibrated search for a political change. The perception of North Indian culture and economic dominance over government jobs and Tamil language submission to Hindi has been effectively ingrained in the public mind. A numb sense of apprehension accompanies the loss of trusted leadership and for its culture and language that finds little resonance outside the state.
The strategic expectation of replicating the old magic of the star power, evident by the recent action of recruiting politically non quantified KUshbhu, exposes the BJP to a charge of a weak and irrelevant tactics. Its long drawn out unsuccessful wooing of Ranjai, for all his worth, is probably another instance of bad analytics and faulty inputs. Kamal Hassan has set the stage with Hassan has set the stage with a 3.5% vote share demonstrated in the last byelections.
The disconnect Of BJP with political reality is not the question. It’s the inability to have worked at the solution. The absence of Amit Shah/s direct presence will be felt more as the elections draw near in Tamil Nadu. The state unit of BJP can do better than brazen hijacking of Thiruvalluvar and recruiting Kshbu if it is to touch the tamil heart strings. There cannot be a better time for a tightly knit, powerful party like BJP to make its entry over a political dominance of over sixty years.
Professionalism and political realism is key to the elections of 2021 Tamil nadu. The fact that DMK has signed up with Prashant Kishore should be convincing enough. The challenge is to align political objectives with effective narratives to build a sustainable organization for delivery and performance in Tamil Nadu. This exercise can be aided by employing state of the art AI and modeling tools to build political presence. This is a different call from winning only an election through non sustainable limited social media operations.